Monday, April 21, 2014

Climate 'Science:' The Old "Truncate the Graph" Trick

As I was dial-flipping Saturday, I came across an episode of Years of Living Dangerously a topic about which I have already written. So, I decided to watch until I saw my first factual error (i.e., not one of opinion). It took, literally, two minutes. A graph had to do with solar output and temperature. The 'scientist' was presenting the graph as if it was current.
Look carefully: The data ends in 2005 (yellow circle I added). The temperature data (upper right, red line I added) shows flat temperatures back to 1998 -- seven years (1998 to 2005). They don't dare show current data because it would show 16 years of no warming! 

Sadly, this is exactly what I predicted from The Years of Living Dangerously -- it is propaganda, not science. We have gone 16 years without temperatures warming. Climate science advocacy cannot even present current, accurate data to make its case.

I ran into this exact issue when commenting on Dr. Kerry Emanuel's piece at 538 last week in response to the vile comments made toward Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. I, like Roger, contended that hurricanes are not getting worse. A number of links to graphs were posted, several like this (I truncated the first part of the graph before the satellite era so we would have an apples-to-apples measurement).
Blue is sea temperatures, dotted air temperatures, red hurricane index. 
Of course, the graph above ends in 2008, even though it is now 2014. Every graph posted at 538 ended in 2009 or earlier.

How, here is the real story (compare to red line above):
Dr. Ryan Maue, click to enlarge. 
The graphs are nearly the same up to 2008. Both graphs show a peak in 2005 (Katrina, Rita, Wilma). Since, hurricanes in both the northern hemisphere and worldwide have tanked. The U.S. has gone 8.5 years without a major hurricane hitting our coasts -- by far, the longest such interval in history. Highly inconvenient for those that contend hurricanes have gotten worse.

And, the record slow tornado season (a good thing) continues!

Meanwhile, the threat of global cooling, which would be far more devastating to humanity than warming, continues to grow.

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