Best Video of Multi-Vortex Tornado I Have Seen

Suggest going to full screen mode (lower right icon). The amazing "suction spots" (Ted Fujita coined the term for what we now know is a "multi vortex" tornado) starts after :50. The white suction spots rotate around the main circulation which is what we define as a tornado. We see one of the suction spots destroy a barn.

Suction spots are part of the reason why two homes are heavily damages and the one in between is lightly damaged.

Just after the 4 minute mark, they talk about the tornado's "smell." That is something I discuss in Warnings. Tornadoes have a unique, foul smell. If you are unfortunate enough to take in their aroma, you won't soon forget it.

ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ

From a contractor friend in Iraq:

"Sean, Iran has sent troops across the border into Iraq. They're here!

Huge stockpiles of US armor, weapons, heavy artillery, mortars, armored vehicles, tanks, the entire main weapons depot and the main helicopter base, have been captured, mostly intact, by ISIS

The largest oilfield in Iraq has also been captured by ISIS. No US airstrikes, and none are likely any time soon.

Bumbling US State Department is providing zero support to contractors and other Americans still here.

Water, ammunition, and other critical supplies are not being delivered to what few Iraqi troops there are who have not already ripped-off their uniforms and fled.

All Americans, including me, are trying desperately to get out.

Fighting is bitter! ISIS does not take prisoners. ISIS is murdering/slaughtering captives and non-combatants alike. Like the NVA in Vietnam in the 1960s, ISIS has hit-lists with names of government officials, opposition, police military personnel. All are marked for death. The ultimate slaughter will defy imagination!

Kurds in the mountains are establishing their own state. They, correctly, have zero faith in any US-sponsored central government. No surprise!

In short, it is total chaos here. Extremely dangerous. It is the fall of Vietnam all over again! Anyone who trusts the USA as an ally is a fool!"



Comment: We've elected an amoral incompetent, and he has predictably surrounded himself with dithering buffoons and lying criminals. No one trusts us any more, and no one believes any statement coming from the White House, nor the State Department, nor should they . . .

"When the bus is going over a cliff, it really doesn't matter if you're sitting in the front or in the back."

STORMBRINGER SENDS

They were CHILDREN . . .

Over here in the States we have been following every day the story of the kidnapped & murdered teens Eyal Yifrach, 19; Gilad Shaar, 16; and Naftali Frenkel, also 16 - it is horrific - words cannot express . . . our deepest and sincerest sympathies to their families, and the greater family of the State of Israel . . . S.L.

STORMBRINGER SENDS

Derecho Update

Radar recap of the derecho which knocked out power to 200,000+ homes and businesses:

Tremendous number of storm reports.

ORIGINAL POSTING:
Widespread damage has already occurred with the derecho. It should reach O'Hare and Midway airports around 6:30pm, causing massive delays.  Radar, 4:53pm.

There have been a few tornadoes embedded in the line. There is a tornado warning out southwest of Madison, WI at this moment. Radar 4:51pm.

"Particularly Dangerous Situation" Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Chicago and Milwaukee

The rarest type of watch:

I disagree the likelihood of tornadoes is "low." I would call it "moderate" in this area. The tornadoes may well be wrapped in rain and difficult, if not impossible, to see. Wind gusts may exceed 85 mph in places with power outages likely.

Here are some safety suggestions for this particular situation. Please review if you are in the tornado watch.

• Go to the ATM and get some extra cash well before the storms approach. 
• Fill your car's tank with gas or charge your electric car. 
• Derechoes can move very quickly. Make sure your children and infirm relatives are accounted for at all times and can be easily and quickly sheltered. 
• Know -- now -- your sheltering plan if a tornado warning is issued. 
• Plan to park your car in the garage.
• Bring in lawn furniture, grills, and trampolines.
• Make sure you have a source of weather information when thunderstorms approach that will work if the power fails. 
• Be sure your shelter has a flashlight, batteries, a bottle of water. Wear shoes and take your cell phones.

Note: I am not live-blogging the storms. AccuWeather is providing continuous coverage. 

Approximate Location Derecho/Line of Thunderstorms...

…at 8pm CDT. Again, this is an approximation for planning purposes.

Forecast from Hazwx.com.

Tornado Watch: Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois

…as well as two counties in far northeast Missouri. A new tornado watch has been issued ahead of the dangerous line of thunderstorms now moving through central Iowa:

This watch is scheduled to expire at 7pm CDT. It does not include Chicago at this time. I also disagree there is a "low" chance of EF-2+ intensity tornadoes. I would characterize the threat of any tornado as "high" and of EF 2-3 intensity tornadoes as "moderate." In this type of situation, relatively strong leading-edge tornadoes can occur. In addition to tornadoes, SPC is forecasting gusts to 85 mph!

Here are some safety suggestions for this particular situation. Please review if you are in the tornado watch.

• Go to the ATM and get some extra cash well before the storms approach. 
• Fill your car's tank with gas or charge your electric car. 
• Derechoes can move very quickly. Make sure your children and infirm relatives are accounted for at all times and can be easily and quickly sheltered. 
• Know -- now -- your sheltering plan if a tornado warning is issued. 
• Plan to park your car in the garage.
• Bring in lawn furniture, grills, and trampolines.
• Make sure you have a source of weather information when thunderstorms approach that will work if the power fails. 
• Be sure your shelter has a flashlight, batteries, a bottle of water. Wear shoes and take your cell phones.

Note: I am not live-blogging the storms. AccuWeather is providing continuous coverage. 

First of the "Leading Edge" Tornado Threats

This morning, I wrote about the potential for tornadoes on the leading edge of thunderstorms. We now have a tornado warning southwest of Des Moines in just such a situation.

Unlike a supercell tornado, a tornado with a derecho has a hook or "claw" protruding from the leading side (east) side of the solid or near-solid line of thunderstorms (arrow).

You still get the rotational couplet as captured below (circle). 

Take all of your regular tornado precautions!

Addition 12:59pm: A tornado was confirmed near/at Stuart, Iowa, with this system. 

Derecho Danger!

In addition to the significant risk of tornadoes (tornado watch continues in effect), a second major weather risk is developing for Iowa: a derecho. A derecho is a long-lived, widespread damaging wind event quite capable of causing power failures.  Derechoes also cause tornadoes but usually on the leading edge of the storm rather than the trailing edge.

Here are some safety suggestions:

• Go to the ATM and get some extra cash well before the storms approach. 
• Fill your car's tank with gas or charge your electric car. 
• Derechoes can move very quickly. Make sure your children and infirm relatives are accounted for at all times and can be easily and quickly sheltered. 
• Plan to park your car in the garage.
• Bring in lawn furniture, grills, and trampolines.
• Make sure you have a source of weather information when thunderstorms approach that will work if the power fails. 
• Be sure your shelter has a flashlight, batteries, a bottle of water. Wear shoes and take your cell phones.

I am not able to live-blog these storms. Please go to AccuWeather.com for more information throughout the day.

UPDATE: 11:47am CDT…

With a derecho looking more and more likely, the Storm Prediction Center has updated its damaging wind forecast since I posted their 8am version below.

Fifteen percent is the significant threshold for thunderstorm-related wind gusts of 60 mph or higher. The hatched area is where wind gusts of 75 mph or higher are forecast to occur. 

Tornado Watch Issued Already!

It is quite unusual for a tornado watch to be issued at 9:35 am, but here it is. A tornado warning is already in effect in Iowa. Note the probability of tornadoes is "high" and of violent tornadoes, "moderate."

Midwest: Another Stormy Day

Here we go again. After tornadoes and violent storms yesterday, it looks like more of the same today.

Tornado Risk:
Five percent is the significant threshold. Fifteen percent is quite high and the hatching means violent tornadoes are forecast. Please make sure sure you monitor the weather in these areas!

Damaging Wind Risk:

Fifteen percent is the significant threshold for winds of 60 mph or more. The hatched area is where winds of 75 mph or more are forecast.

Large Hail Risk

Again, 15% is the significant threshold for 1" or larger hail. The hatched area is where 2" or larger hail is forecast.  

Bottom line: This is a potentially dangerous situation from Kansas to Michigan. If you live in these areas:

• Plan to park your car in the garage
• Bring in lawn furniture, grills, and trampolines
• Make sure you have a source of weather information when thunderstorms approach
• Be sure your shelter has a flashlight, batteries, a bottle of water. Wear shoes and take your cell phones.

Red Cross' Hurricane Sandy Expenditures: "Trade Secret"

Those who have read Warnings or this blog over an extended time know I am not, in general, a fan of the American Red Cross. They just gave me another reason. ProPublica reports….

Just how badly does the American Red Cross want to keep secret how it raised and spent over $300 million after Hurricane Sandy?

The charity has hired a fancy law firm to fight a public request we filed with New York state, arguing that information about its Sandy activities is a "trade secret."

The Red Cross' "trade secret" argument has persuaded the state to redact some material, though it's not clear yet how much since the documents haven't yet been released...

That's where the law firm Gibson Dunn comes in.

An attorney from the firm's New York office appealed to the attorney general to block disclosure of some of the Sandy information, citing the state Freedom of Information Law's trade secret exemption.

The documents include "internal and proprietary methodology and procedures for fundraising, confidential information about its internal operations, and confidential financial information," wrote Gabrielle Levin of Gibson Dunn in a letter to the attorney general's office.

If those details were disclosed, "the American Red Cross would suffer competitive harm because its competitors would be able to mimic the American Red Cross's business model for an increased competitive advantage," Levin wrote.

The letter doesn't specify who the Red Cross' "competitors" are.

Please click on the link to read the entire story.

In the meantime, when there is another disaster, I'll keep giving to The Salvation Army and Catholic Charities. 

Green Energy: Doesn't Work

Examiner Editorial: Admit it, greens --- renewables can't power U.S. economy

Finally, finally, people are waking up to reality: Global warming is a (net) small problem and that 'green' energy cannot power the U.S. economy.

Big Green activists have taken their crusade against hydraulic fracturing to a number of state capitols for the same reason they oppose the Keystone XL pipeline. They want the fossil fuels that power the U.S. economy to remain in the ground, untapped. The fact that the ongoing natural gas boom is doing far more through market forces to reduce the use of coal than any government regulation is apparently irrelevant to them.

But the question they must answer is precisely how they propose to keep the American economy functioning until green power can actually replace fossil fuels. It is an important question, because renewable fuel cannot do the job – not even under the Obama administration's most optimistic projections.

The little discussed reality is that renewable energy cannot function without heavy subsidies in the form of producer and consumer tax credits, purchase mandates, and large loan guarantees to companies like the now-bankrupt Solyndra.

But this is only part of the problem. Not only are renewables (other than hydro-electric) already more costly than other energy sources, but there is also no serious chance they can expand sufficiently to produce the energy the economy needs now or for years to come.

The entire editorial is here.

Addition:
And, sure enough, USA Today has an editorial on this topic today:

Is it fair to use climate policies to keep poor people poor?

Access to cheap and abundant power is one of the best ways to lift people out of poverty. Analyses show that there is a clear connection between growth and energy availability in Africa. Most spectacularly, China lifted 680 million people out of poverty over the past 30 years — not through expensive wind and solar, but through cheap, if polluting, coal.

It is immoral to use a speculative problem to keep people in poverty now. 

Two Tornado Warnings - Atchison to St. Joseph

9:34pm: Flash flood warning (green) with serious flooding possible. Tornado warnings in red. DeKalb should continue tornado precautions. Last update of the night! Tornado watch continues in northeast Kansas and NW MO.

9:22pm, broad rotation. Damaging winds likely. Tornado possible. One was confirmed at 9:17 near Rushville. Take cover toward I-29.  Take cover in DeKalb and areas between DeKalb and Iatan.

Via Twitter, just got this photo of tornado in Atchison area.

We are getting reports of tornado touchdowns from Atchison, KS to Rushville, MO. At 9:12pm, there were two areas of rotation between Rushville and Lewis & Clark Village. We have had some minor damage reported, hopefully, that is all that is occurring.

8:48pm, rotation right on top of Atchison, JKS

8:46pm, rotating wall cloud near Atchison. Via KMBC TV.

Two areas of rotation. Take cover in these areas. Radar, 8:41pm.

Tornado Warning: Atchison, KS - DeKalb, MO

See above thread.


8:33pm, strong tornado signature near Mo. Rvr moving NE to NNE with a second signature to southwest. Continue precautions!

8:26pm Radar shows two areas of rotation, one over Atchison and the second WSW of Atchison moving ENE.

Radar at 8:24pm. Possible tornado near Atchison movie ENE. Moving toward Agency, MO.

Tornado Warning in Northwest Missouri

Red polygon is tornado warning. Yellow is severe thunderstorm warning. Radar from 8pm.

Note new storms developing north and south of Topeka.

At the Rate Climate Change is Destroying the Planet...

…we may only have millions of years left!

Tornado Watch: Kansas and Missouri

This includes Metro KC, Topeka and St. Joseph until 1am.

Thunderstorms: Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas & Missouri

At 6:45pm, the yellow polygons are severe thunderstorm warnings, especially for large hail.

Heads Up, Kansas

UPDATE 6pm CDT:

Radar at 5:57pm shows four areas in Kansas where thunderstorms are starting to develop. 

ORIGINAL POSTING:

The atmosphere over parts of central Kansas and the Flint Hills region seems to be destabilizing rapidly. There is a weak impulse over central-western Kansas that I think could cause thunderstorms in the area outlined in yellow this evening, south of the tornado watch in Nebraska. So, I'd suggest keeping an eye on the weather if thunderstorms develop near you.

Tornado Watch: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri

Storms are starting to increase in intensity. Keep an eye on the weather in this region. The watch expires at 11pm.

Books About World War I

This weekend is the 100th anniversary of the events that set off World War I. The U.S.'s official memorial to World War I is in Kansas City. It is a spectacular museum and I highly encourage you to visit while our nation commemorates that horrible war.

Forecaster Evie's other grandfather is a World War I historian. If you would like to read books about how the world went from nearly a century of peace to the extremely turbulent world of the 20th and, so far, 21st century, here are Dennis' recommendations.

Stormy Start to Week

It looks like another stormy day in the Midwest. With probability forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center, let's break it down:

Tornado Probability

Here, 5% is the significant threshold. It includes KC, Des Moines, Quincy, Topeka and Omaha.

Damaging Thunderstorm Winds

Fifteen percent is the significant threshold for wind gusts of 60 mph or more. In the hatching, gusts of 75 mph or more are possible.

Large Hail

Again, 15% is the significant threshold for 1" or larger hail. Where you see the hatching, hail 2" or larger is expected.

And, for tomorrow:

This is the combined (tornado, hail, wind) probability map with 15% significant.

So, please keep up on the weather if you live in these areas!

AMERICA

Meditations on America as we go into the Fourth of July . . . S.L.

I've known guys who grew up on Mom, Apple Pie and the Fourth of July - if you cut them they bleed red, white and blue - I'm not one of them. I wish I was, but I've always felt a bit out of place here in my adopted country. I love NFL football even though I only understand about 50% of what's happening when I watch it. I love the American "Can-Do" spirit and the American dream, most of all I love America The Idea.

America The Idea is the concept that each person is a free individual with unalienable rights, as described in the Declaration of Independence and codified in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. See this piece of paper, Mister President? This is where your power stops and my rights begin.

This is American Exceptionalism. No other country on the face of the Earth has such a charter. The UK comes close but they lack fundamental freedoms we take for granted. We are the exception to the rule.

It is not by accident that America became the Superpower. There are several countries with as much land and resources as ours, even more so. Why is not Russia a Superpower, or China? What about Africa - why is there not a United States of Africa? With their natural resources, geographic location surrounded by water and almost unlimited manpower the Africans should rule the world. One thing makes America stand out and drives our system to the top: American Exceptionalism.

The Idea is open to everyone in the world, because every human being on the planet has a burning desire to be free - it is as instinctive and natural as air, water, food and shelter. We didn't invent The Idea - it goes all the way back to Aristotle in Ancient Greece - but our Founding Fathers brought it as close to perfection as is humanly possible. The Idea is basically our guaranteed-in-writing individual right to The Pursuit of Happiness.

I love America. Most of all I love the freedom I enjoy here and the almost unlimited opportunity this country offers - all you have to do is want something bad enough and be willing to work hard for it and you can be whoever you want to be, have whatever you want - it is all within all of ours reach.

But nowadays fundamental American values are being torn down more and more every week to the point it seems we don't have too many American values left to lose. I love America and I don't want to lose her. It's not too late for America - it's never too late. We can do it. We can be great again. I saw it done before - after the turmoil of the Seventies - and I was a part of it. I was a part of Reagan's Army.

We can do it again. It's going to take a lot of sweat, toil, pain and tears but we can make America great again. It might take ten years, it might take a hundred, but it is worth it. No matter what it takes, its a million times better than holding our grandkids on our knees and hear them ask, "Tell us about when America was the Superpower, Grandpa. Tell us what happened, Grandpa?"

Oh my God, how I dread the day I have to answer that question . . .

I love America and everything America has given me in my life. I love Old Glory, the flag of Freedom, the most beautiful flag in the world.

I've been very upset for a long time, more and more these days. Nowadays I cling to the hope that, despite everything that is going wrong with our country, the underlying spirit that is America will stir in people and overcome all the idiocy that plagues us at the moment.

There is an underlying spirit in the people of America. It will rise to the surface again, you cannot quash something like that with petty laws and bureaucracy . . .

I didn't do it for the money because I could have made a hundred times more on the outside, and I didn't do it for glory. Quite honestly, at first I signed up for the adventure - its in my blood - then I stayed in and made soldiering my profession. Somewhere along the line it became a calling.

This Iraq thing is what's snapping my head around. I saw firsthand the results of America turning its back on our allies in Southeast Asia and now I'm seeing it again in the Middle East. America retreating on all fronts, and our enemies gaining ground. Just like the late Seventies when the Soviets were snapping up countries left and right, and our policy was "détente" - which means there's nothing we can do about it so lets just learn to live with each other.


Operation Urgent Fury - the liberation of Grenada - was the turning point of the Cold War.

But I was a part of the rebuilding of America as a Superpower - if it wasn't for Ronald Reagan's leadership there'd be a lot more oppression in this world and a lot less freedom and prosperity.

Now I know why I'm here. Now I know my mission in Life. We can make America great again and we will, and I am going to do everything I can in my power to drive it.

"Pro Patria est . . ."

STORMBRINGER SENDS

Sunday Feature: Video of the Most Predictable Train Derailment in History

I'm not sure why a passenger train would move forward with a visible defect in the rail (see below), but

move he did with predictable results.

Yes, There Are More Problems With Climate DATA

All over the blogosphere this past week, the usual climate crowd was proclaiming that May, 2014, was the warmest month (note how when a month is cold, it is "weather" and when a month is hot, it is "climate") "in history," "in the month of May," etc. Why the confusion?

Because there is yet another problem in the climate data.

While it has probably been a couple of years since I have written about it, there is a lot of fudging* that goes on in climate data. Here is a well-known fudge in the NASA data that has never been fully explained by NASA.

View the animation here. As is clear when you see the animation, the older temperatures magically get colder while the more recent temperatures get warmer.

And, this is still going on. This graph shows all of the recent 'adjustments' are to warm the atmosphere where many of the changes prior to 1980 are to cool the atmosphere. This means the upslope in recent temperatures is more dramatic.

Even here in Kansas, they continue to tinker with the temperature data. As Paul Homewood comments,
But this leaves the question of just why there is a need to continually adjust current temperatures upwards.

In the last 24 hours, both Anthony Watts and Judy Curry have weighed in on this mess that causes temperatures to appear warmer than they actually are. As Anthony has stated, I believe we will be hearing more about this in the next week.

For the record, this blog has always used the unadjusted HADCRUT3 data set unless otherwise stated. I believe that data base demonstrates trends in temperatures better than the others. I do not "cherry-pick" between data sets.

*Why does this occur? Sometimes the adjustments are legitimate such as synching measurements that are taken at different times of day or when a weather station is moved. Some of it appears to be what is caused "noble cause corruption" -- massaging the data to support what the person believes supports a worthy cause.

Glenn Reynolds Says...

Wind turbine destroyed by high winds.

"INSANITY CONSISTS OF DOING THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN, EXPECTING A DIFFERENT RESULT: Obama-Style Climate and Energy Programs Have Failed Everywhere They’ve Been Tried. Why repeat this tragedy in America?

But failure is in the eye of the beholder. In terms of opportunities for graft, they’ve been a splendid success."